Blog
Posts & updates
Writing from Authors workbench. Posts live on Substack — click any post below to read it there (opens in a new tab).
20 most recent posts
Where Sportsbooks and Prediction Markets Fall Short for Sports Trading
Jun 3, 2026 · nfos
Both models host trading today, but the structural gaps come from opposite directions. The architecture that closes them is starting to come into view.
Dynamic Tournament Win Probability: The Integration Layer
May 27, 2026 · nfos
The previous two posts described tournament-level win probability for Grand Slams and the World Cup as separate problems.
Thinking Through Win Probability at the Grand Slams
May 22, 2026 · nfos
The tennis win probability model described earlier in this series operates at the match level.
Win Probability at the World Cup
May 17, 2026 · nfos
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11 in North America.
Soccer and Hockey: The Poisson Sports
May 17, 2026 · nfos
Soccer and hockey share a structural property that separates them from basketball and football: goals are rare.
BioValue: building a drug valuation tool from scratch
May 12, 2026 · nfos
check it out live: BioValue
The Perception Problem
May 10, 2026 · nfos
A mutual friend recently introduced me to a wealth advisor.
Baseball and Tennis: The Discrete State Sports
May 10, 2026 · nfos
Baseball and tennis share a structural property that separates them from every other major sport: the game state at any moment is fully described by a finite, enumerable set of discrete variables.
From API Call to Bedrock in Five Files
May 10, 2026 · nfos
The previous post explained the rationale for moving from direct Anthropic API (Application Programming Interface) calls to AWS (Amazon Web Services) Bedrock.
From Claude to Bedrock
May 6, 2026 · nfos
Most people who use Claude interact with it in one of two ways: the website at claude.ai, or Claude Code in the terminal.
Basketball: The Random Walk
May 6, 2026 · nfos
Basketball produces more scoring events per game than any other major sport.
The Process Caught Up to the Code. The Tools Haven't.
Apr 30, 2026 · nfos
The previous post argued that AI flipped the bottleneck in software development.
The Training Problem Nobody Talks About
Apr 30, 2026 · nfos
Every company that scales past a handful of people hits the same wall.
The Math Behind Win Probability
Apr 30, 2026 · nfos
The previous post mapped the landscape - which sports use which approaches and why.
Measure Once, Cut Twice
Apr 24, 2026 · nfos
The bottleneck in software development moved. The process hasn't caught up.
From the Sportsbook to the Order Book
Apr 21, 2026 · nfos
From bookmakers to prediction markets: the two-century evolution that explains why Wall Street tools don't work on sports.
Updating the encrypted live site with one Cowork prompt
Apr 19, 2026 · nfos
follow on from last post
The State of Win Probability in Sports
Apr 19, 2026 · nfos
Win probability is one of the most widely displayed and least understood numbers in sports.
Choosing an Agent Framework is an Engineering Decision
Apr 16, 2026 · nfos
We recently went through the agent framework decision at SportChartz.
Game Trading and Stock Trading follow the same rules, but sometime use different language
Apr 14, 2026 · nfos
A translation guide for the vocabulary that trips up bettors, traders, and prediction market participants.